Epain Homes

Bye Bye Summer. A prolonged slump in sales and consistent increase in listings has increased the MOI (months of inventory) dramatically. Last year we had 3.5 MOI at the end of August and now we are sitting at 12.5 MOI.

Sales are down 53% (oh my God?) compared with July 2007 and the news has been more gloomy every week. We can expect more gruesome headlines next week.

We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007. We are currently up 72% (climbing every month) over last year. North Vancouver inventory is up over 104% (same as July) compared to August 07.

Listings have begun to slow down and dropped about 2% when compared with last August. That is likely a blip that will reverse in September as the fall market prompts more hopeful home sellers to list homes and investments. If the MOI stays high, prices will continue to adjust downward.

Sellers:

Price sharply and don’t get greedy.

Buyers:

The market is nervous. Negotiate a tough deal and hold long term!

What are you seeing out there? Keep on posting!

Here are some visuals:

Listings:

Sales:

All sub area inventory charts here: INVENTORY (UPDATING)

Okay no more bear jokes. Let’s put this whole bull v. bear thing aside. No more labels. No one is a perpetual bear or bull right? For now it appears that the belief in constant increases in home prices is diminishing and is any regular reader surprised? With exception to Dave, I have not seen a bullish comment on this blog for months. Anyone want to take a crack at it?

This post is in regards to two polls spanning 8 months. The first was posted in December 07 titled: Vancouver area prices in 2008 will… , and the follow up poll posted earlier this month was titled: Within 24 months real estate prices will?..

No regular visitor here will be surprised that consumer confidence is rattled after many month’s of bearish stats. I do however find it interesting how quickly mass opinion can shift. I charted the poll results to illustrate the contrast. Although the earlier poll had fewer votes, I would imagine a similar mix in the poll’s respondents. Don’t forget the labels of the first poll were more conservative.

See you for the August sales and invetory update.

December:

August:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:

Month-over-month housing prices retreat from record highs

VANCOUVER, B.C. – Aug 5, 2008 – As property listings continue to outpace sales, Greater Vancouver housing prices have drawn back, the last two months, from the record highs experienced in early 2008.

Since May 2008, housing prices, as calculated by the MLSLink Housing Price Index®, across each residential category have declined. Detached properties in Greater Vancouver declined 2.3 per cent through June and July 2008, while attached were down 1 per cent and apartment properties 2 per cent over the same period.

The overall benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 2.1 per cent since the end of May 2008, from $568,411 to $556,605 in July 2008.

“We’re seeing more price reductions in properties listed on the market, which is having a levelling impact on the housing price increases experienced at the end of last year and into the first quarter of 2008,” said Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president, Dave Watt. “There was a slight decline in the total active listings on the market in July compared to June, which is a welcomed departure from recent trends.”

Residential property sales in Greater Vancouver declined 43.9 per cent in July 2008 to 2,174 from the 3,873 sales recorded in July 2007.

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties increased 24 per cent to 6,104 in July 2008 compared to July 2007, when 4,924 new units were listed.

Sales of detached properties in July 2008 declined 44.2 per cent to 827 from the 1,483 units sold during the same period in 20070. The benchmark price for detached properties is up 5.4 per cent from July 2007 to $753,165.

Sales of apartment properties declined 42.3 per cent last month to 966, compared to 1,674 sales in July 2007. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 4.7 per cent from July 2007 to $381,687.

Attached property sales in July 2008 decreased 46.8 per cent to 381, compared with the 716 sales in July 2007. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 5.7 per cent between July 2007 and 2008 to $473,953.

Summer is here and it’s more of the same from last month. A continued slump in sales and consistent increase in listings has increased the MOI (months of inventory) dramatically. Last year we had 3 MOI at the end of July and now we are sitting at 8.8MOI.

Listings have begun to slow down. I would expect inventory to drop slightly or flat line this month before climbing again in September. Sales numbers will likely stay low, exhibiting market uncertainty. If the MOI stays high, prices will adjust downward.

Sellers:

Price sharply and don’t get greedy.

Buyers:

The market is nervous. Negotiate a tough deal and hold long term!

Some numbers:

Sales are down 41% (same as June) compared with July 2007. This will bring more bearish news headlines this week.

We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007. We are currently up 67% over last year, and 83% over July 31st 2006. North Vancouver inventory is up over 104% compared to July 07.

What are you seeing out there? Keep on posting!

Here are some visuals:

Sales

Listings

All sub area inventory charts here: INVENTORY