Epain Homes

Who’s buying and why are they buying now???
For a while there i thought it was just me who was having one of the busiest months in the last few years. The news was still reporting increasing unemployment along with increased personal and commercial bankruptcy rates. However, as the month carried on, i realized it wasn’t just me- its everybody. My office is buzzing with activity, my friends downtown office is the same and a realtor that I refer business to on Gibsons said he expereincing more activity now than in the past year. I was also talking to a mortgage broker colleague of mine the other day and he informed me that in his industry many of them are working 12-14 hour days to keep up with the increased market activity. Below is a sample of some current rates being offered:

Fixed Rate Mortgages:

1 Year…………. 2.90%
2 Year…………. 3.05%
3 Year…………. 3.15%
4 Year…………. 3.79%
5 year…………..3.75%
7 Year…………. 5.15%
10 Year……….. 5.25%

For a $300,000 mortgage with five year fixed term at %3.75 your monthly payment would be $1536 for a 25 year amortization or $1278 for a 35 year amortization.

In my opinion this current market bounce is being driven by first time buyers attracted into the market by low rates and the opportunity to look at properties at a much slower pace than years past. This in turn has had the trickle up effect on the market. Sellers of condos are buying townhouses, sellers of townhouses buying detached homes and so on.

We’ve seen an almost across the board sweep for the bulls for April:

MOI -24% (MOM) This one caught me off guard. Just over 5 months of inventory. All those expired and cancelled listings never came back on in force. When/if that does happen and listing counts start to rise again…look out.

SALES +30% (MOM) . First time buyers getting those %3.79 rates are the driving force behind this one.

AVERAGE PRICE SFH: $815,099( +6.8% mom) AVERAGE PRICE CONDO $397,404 (+4.9% mom). I think we learned that sometimes as the market can fall quickly that it can rise just as fast. I’m not saying this will continue but man did it happen fast.

Litmus test will be the summer for sure.

I will conitinue doing the daily, weekly and monthly stats for while longer. Im going on vacation for 8 days starting on monday so nothing for next week.

Thanks for all your support. I wish everybody well and have a great summer.
Cheers to all!!
Gavin

Many months ago everyone was making predictions about how high inventory would balloon this spring and whether or not we would get a bounce. I think it’s safe to say the vast majority of bears (myself included) have been caught off guard with the strength of the spring market.

Inventory is sitting at under 15k while many predicted a number close to 25k for June. What interests me most is whether this bounce is the beginning of a recovery and a stabilizing of prices or just a spring blip which will begin to trend down later this year.

Many assumed that poor job numbers and weak economic data among other reasons would continue to hurt housing prices bringing Vancouver real estate to new lows in 2009. The CMHC still seems bearish on BC real estate forecasting a 13% decline in home prices in 2009 and 2.3% in 2010. Considering the strength of this spring’s market rally I am surprised to see this.

The S/L ratio which we keep a close eye on is far stronger than the last many months and even last spring. At a glance of Gavin’s weekly stats I see S/L Ratio’s at 70% and even 90% (a vast improvement over the 30’s of last spring). Sales are still very low but the lack of listings flooding the market has improved MOI to the point of prices increases.

What are you seeing out there? Are opens slammed? Multiple offers? Any predictions on what’s to come this summer?

I personally would not expect a return to a bull market just yet…

Paul

Before I introduce myself to all of you I wanted to first say a big thank-you to Paul and Sandra taking the time to get my wife and I ready for this next project. I’m hoping that since Paul and his wife are still together after doing this website for 3 years it will not lead to any marital challenges.

I must say that seeing how Paul and Sandra run the back end of this site and how they’ve created spreadsheets for the data, I felt and still feel, a bit apprehensive about taking on such a large challenge. I can tell you that the amount of work they put in over the last three years on a DAILY basis has been massive!! Luckily Paul has promised he won’t desert me too soon.

To all of you who appreciate the site, and all the work they’ve put in, I wanted to let you all know that Paul and I have worked out a referral arrangement for all of you who will either buy or sell in the future and were looking forward to working with Paul. I look forward to having the opportunity to work with you.

When Paul approached me about taking over his business and we got to talking about the site and his clients we knew it was going to be a good fit. We both have similar philosophies on real estate and how to go about helping people make informed decisions on what is “usually” your life’s biggest purchase. We have many similarities in that both our wives are accountants, we both have kids(me two, Paul almost two) and both believe in always giving straightforward no nonsense advice. I know that many of you use this site as an indicator of where the markets are going and I look forward to keeping the site up to date to help all you with whatever you plan to do down the road.

I’ve been in real estate for 4 years and it that time have earned the MLS Medallion award for 2007 for being in the top 10% of all GVRD realtors. I’ve also won the Prudential Sussex Presidents Circle award for being on the top 5% of all 15,000 Prudential North America agents and on two separate occasions I’ve won the Leading Edge Society award for being in the top 8%. I’m a very hands on realtor with a strong belief that your best interests are served when armed with all the current information possible.

That’s it for me. I could go on longer(just ask my wife) but I wont bore you. I look forward to chatting with many of you by email or the phone or even in person. The site will continue and Paul has encouraged me to make it even better which I plan to do….eventually. I’m still working out the kinks and am no computer wizard but I will do my best to live up to Paul’s high standards.

Cheers
Gavin

I hope you all had a merry Christmas and a happy holiday season with your families. The snow as been unreal. I like it very much, but it does create some chaos.

The retail season was a wash with the weakest retail sales numbers since 1971. You could see it out there with all the sales prices. Some pretty great deals.

I just spoke with a mortgage broker at CIBC and they quoted me a 4 year fixed at 4.69%. Great rate but I doubt it will spur idle home buyers into a short term purchase.

Sales came in at about 924 sales v. 1,897 last December. That’s a 51% drop in sales activity. Inventory took a haircut and settled at 16,200 listings, down from 19,462 in November. We are now up 80% YOY in inventory. MOI is sitting at 17.5 months.

With the holidays over things will get back to normal. Look for monthly, weekly, daily and inventory chart updates this weekend.

Have a safe and happy new years eve!

Sales

Inventory

Benchmark Prices:

“Trends in the latter half of 2008 showed a consistent month-over-month decrease in residential housing prices, adeparture from the rising home prices and record-breaking sales that were experienced in Greater Vancouver for much of this decade,” said REBGV president, Dave Watt.

MOM price declines

detached -2.72%
attached -.7%
apartment -2.64%

Full Stats Report HERE

Inventory Charts HERE

MOI

The most constricted market award goes to Squamish which reeled in 5 sales for December. Not one SFH sold.

These numbers are for August.

It looks like my home town of North Vancouver is one of the better markets to be selling a home right now. For such a large market, West Vancouver is struggling. What will September bring?