Epain Homes

Rather than post a poll I figured I would post something new. So let’s see how long I can stretch out this simple question. Here I go…

The Vancouver real estate market entered a severe slowdown in 2008. After a lacklustre spring market we reached a point at which the slowing sales and mounting inventory combined to end price gains. Prices have fallen every month since April (Benchmark SFH) and the economy has gotten far weaker since the “correction” began.

All things come to an end. The bubble has burst, and we will recover. However with the economic weakness bearing down on us, this year does not look good. Interest rates are falling rapidly which is great news for our market. Unfortunately, I don’t think it’s enough. There are far too many storm clouds on the horizon, and we may have to weather an economic hurricane before we see a rainbow.

Real estate has proven itself a tremendous value for long term wealth creation but it’s not always the best time to buy.

How do you think this will play out? Will we get a dead cat bounce this spring? Will we flatline for a few years? We will rush to new price highs this spring? You tell me.

This month really was the pits for Realtors and home sellers. REBGV home sales are down about 70% compared with last November and the MOI has roared to over 22 Months. Inventory has started to shrink and will continue to reduce as we approach the year end. Now the speculation begins as to how high the listing count will climb this spring.

Today we are faced with 76% higher inventory than the same time last year (19,524 v. 11,114). This number combined with the horrendous sales numbers (915 v. 2884 last November) has stomped out any of the last few burning embers of this market… Okay, that was a bit harsh but at Novembers sales pace it would take over 22 months to clear out our existing inventory v. 3.85 MOI in Nov. 2007. Wow, what a different market.

The good news is that affordability is improving. Lots of previously priced out Vancouverites may now be able to afford to buy a home in Vancouver! Prices are falling and if you look hard enough you can find some excellent buys, however you may want to sit on your hands for a while longer.

For now let’s all enjoy the holiday season! There are some serious sales going on this season and not only on houses and condos:). Have a Merry Christmas and happy holidays.

Months of Inventory (MOI) Sucks to be Squamish

Listings +76% YOY

Sales -70% YOY

UPDATE

Prices are falling sharply. Believe it or not the average SFH price fell 10% this month. Yes in 1 month. $745,778 for November v. $825,206 for October. The average has dipped 19% since March. It will be interesting to see if the benchmarks also make a dramatic drop.

September proved to be an exciting month for me, being voted Best Realtor by you all in the Best of Vancouver contest and then being quoted in the Macleans cover story on housing.

Unfortunatly our real estate market reality is pretty dull. More of the same market trends we’ve seen over the last many months: high inventory,lower sales and falling prices. Inventory has roared to 21,002 listings(+72% YOY) and sales continue to be well off from last year but an improvment MOM at 1619( -45% YOY). The MOI (months of inventory)has also stayed very high at 13 months compared with 4.4 months last Sept.

INVENTORY

SALES

MOI

Do you think that the stock market bloodbath will have any affect on our local real estate? Will investors sell in fear of a global recession? Or perhaps put money back into tangible assets like real estate?

All sub area inventory charts here: INVENTORY

Bye Bye Summer. A prolonged slump in sales and consistent increase in listings has increased the MOI (months of inventory) dramatically. Last year we had 3.5 MOI at the end of August and now we are sitting at 12.5 MOI.

Sales are down 53% (oh my God?) compared with July 2007 and the news has been more gloomy every week. We can expect more gruesome headlines next week.

We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007. We are currently up 72% (climbing every month) over last year. North Vancouver inventory is up over 104% (same as July) compared to August 07.

Listings have begun to slow down and dropped about 2% when compared with last August. That is likely a blip that will reverse in September as the fall market prompts more hopeful home sellers to list homes and investments. If the MOI stays high, prices will continue to adjust downward.

Sellers:

Price sharply and don’t get greedy.

Buyers:

The market is nervous. Negotiate a tough deal and hold long term!

What are you seeing out there? Keep on posting!

Here are some visuals:

Listings:

Sales:

All sub area inventory charts here: INVENTORY (UPDATING)

Summer is here and it’s more of the same from last month. A continued slump in sales and consistent increase in listings has increased the MOI (months of inventory) dramatically. Last year we had 3 MOI at the end of July and now we are sitting at 8.8MOI.

Listings have begun to slow down. I would expect inventory to drop slightly or flat line this month before climbing again in September. Sales numbers will likely stay low, exhibiting market uncertainty. If the MOI stays high, prices will adjust downward.

Sellers:

Price sharply and don’t get greedy.

Buyers:

The market is nervous. Negotiate a tough deal and hold long term!

Some numbers:

Sales are down 41% (same as June) compared with July 2007. This will bring more bearish news headlines this week.

We started 2008 with slightly less inventory than 2007. We are currently up 67% over last year, and 83% over July 31st 2006. North Vancouver inventory is up over 104% compared to July 07.

What are you seeing out there? Keep on posting!

Here are some visuals:

Sales

Listings

All sub area inventory charts here: INVENTORY